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Most Texas politicos came out of the Labor Day weekend in seasonally optimistic moods. This is their moment and it begins with every entrant a potential winner. And the watching is promising, too: As the gates spring open and the races start, the Republicans and Democrats are planning or fearing or predicting anything from skirmish to war in nearly a dozen-and-a-half legislative seats.
We've been nosing around to find out what ought to be on the tout sheet. Some of what follows will probably look odd in two months. Something will turn up that isn't apparent now; like horses, some candidates run better in mud and others prefer heat and dust. Something that looks just perfect will stink in a few short weeks, and some rotten prospect will bloom. This isn't meant to predict what's what, but it'll start the conversation. Which races are moving or have the potential? Which races give the heebie-jeebies to one political camp or the other? Which ones are just fun to watch?
There are two state Senate seats in play -- one of them open and the other held by a Democrat in a conservative district. In the House, there are up to 16 fields of battle, depending on how you sort the rumors, lies, winks, candidate and district quirks, what effect you think the presidential race will have, if any, and how the leaves came to rest in your teacup on Tuesday. The betting here is that only a handful of the House races start at full tempo, with several others capable of getting interesting.
The open Senate seat in East Texas' third district will be the hardest fought, most expensive state race of the year. The candidates are strong on both sides, the money is ready, and the stakes are high. The rest of the Senate is evenly split between the Democrats and the Republicans, and because 2001 is a redistricting year, partisans outside the state are watching.
East Texas is also the scene of some of the warmest House races, many of them in areas that overlap those two Senate races. That'll mean some sharing of organization and some coordinated campaigning. If you watch closely, it'll tell you where the money is. If your favorite candidate in SD-3 is ignoring your favorite House candidate by avoiding joint appearances and the like, chances are the House candidate is on the outs. The bigwigs will stick with the Senate candidates no matter what; if they're fair-weather friends, the House candidates will be the ones who feel it.
You'll get mixed reactions on the Galveston races if you talk to the same Republicans we hit: They're interested in HD-23, the seat held by Democrat Rep. Patricia Gray, but she won last time against a well-financed opponent, and there's a faction in the GOP that is arguing loudly to hold down the number of targeted races. They aimed at 22 last time, and some would like to keep it to a more carefully chosen half-dozen or so races this year. If Jeff Harrison, a League City banker, shows some movement, official Republican interest might turn his way. The Democrats say Gray should be safe. The GOP is even less confident about knocking off Rep. Craig Eiland, D-Galveston in HD-24. But if the momentum moves for Republicans this year, John Hart, the Republican, could get some help.
A couple of other races merit mention. U.S. Rep. Mac Thornberry, R-Clarendon, has a feistier-than-expected challenger in Curtis Clinesmith, a Denton lawyer. Clinesmith wasn't on the official party radar, but was raising money at a decent clip at the midyear point and could get some outside help if he shows some results. Put it on the watch list. In CD-1, U.S. Rep. Max Sandlin, D-Marshall, drew a challenge from actor Noble Willingham that got a lot of early attention that has since cooled some. He was in a movie called "The Corndog Man" that may prove to be a better cinematic achievement than a political one.
Friday Films is back starting January 13th and running through May 19th! Bring your own popcorn and join us on select Fridays at the library to watch newly released movies. Scroll down to check out the dates, times and movies and to register to attend. 2b1af7f3a8